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Monday, 15 October 2007

MEDIA RELEASE - QUEENSLAND REGIONAL OFFICE

Queenslanders urged to prepare early for Cyclone season

Queensland can expect more cyclone activity this season than last, when just two cyclones developed in the Coral Sea, neither of which was severe nor made landfall. It’s unlikely however that the coming season will be as active as 2005-06 when severe cyclones Larry and Monica struck the east coast.

The outlook was issued today by the Bureau of Meteorology at the launch of its pre-Cyclone season disaster mitigation campaign.

The Bureau’s Regional Director, Jim Davidson described the general climate pattern as being uncertain, showing characteristics of what’s described as a relatively weak La Niña but complicated by sea surface temperatures in the deep north being cooler than would normally be expected. This he said made it more of a challenge than forecasting during periods where the climate indicators were better defined such as a strong El Niño or La Niña.

“It’s only when we see a strong El Niño or La Niña that we can predict with any degree of confidence whether cyclone numbers in the Coral Sea are likely to be lower or higher than the long term average of 3,” Mr Davidson said.

Although the number of cyclones is in doubt, it only takes a single severe cyclone to hit the populated east coast to make the season a memorable one. Besides, if the La Niña strengthens further, as may well happen, Mr Davidson said the likelihood of a major cyclone impact on the east coast would be greater.

He said the steady growth in coastal development has significantly increased the community vulnerability to tropical cyclones, with more people and property at risk than ever before and urged individuals and communities to focus on preparing for the Cyclone season now.

“Pre-season preparation is a key element in disaster mitigation strategy,” Mr Davidson said.

“The most important advice is to make sure you know about the dangers posed by cyclones, storm tides and floods; understand the warning service; and are sensibly prepared,” he said.

The Bureau’s annual pre-cyclone season disaster mitigation campaign starts in Brisbane on Wednesday (17 October), in partnership with the Queensland Department of Emergency Services and the Environmental Protection Agency. Between now and December, the campaign trail will lead to coastal and inland centres across the state, with a focus on Cyclone awareness and preparedness.

At all times, the official source of information on Tropical Cyclones is the Bureau’s web page at www.bom.gov.au/weather/cyclone. During a cyclone, the latest information from the Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre is also available by dialing 1300 659 212 (for the cost of a local call).

This Outlook only applies to the Coral Sea and Queensland’s east coast.
The Seasonal Outlook for the Gulf of Carpentaria is issued by the Northern Territory Regional Office.

For further information:
Jim Davidson (07) 3239 8739 or Jeff Callaghan (07) 3239 8624

World Wide Web www.bom.gov.au

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